Happy New Year!

The bear market of 2000-2002 is over. The three-year-old bear market correction represents the fourth time in the Dow's history that it was down three straight years. The other three times were 1901-1903, 1929-1932 (four years), and 1939-1941.

This past year the stock market's major indices were down. The Dow Jones 30 lost 17.14%; AMEX major was down 14.77%; the NASDAQ Composite dropped 30.87%; the NASDAQ Telecom plunged 53.85% and the Wilshire 5000 shed 22.43%.

The latter three indices tell the bloody tale. That's where the bulk of the money was lost. If the Dow holds above 8000 over the next several months, there will be a reverse head and shoulders Dow pattern in place. If the NASDAQ were to drop about 100 points from where it is currently (1387.08 on January 3, 2003), a reverse triple bottom would be in place. This is a small portion of the mounting evidence that indicates that the correction, and thus the recession, is over.

From a money flow perspective, the evidence is so concrete, it's hard to be a naysayer. The Fed Funds Rate is 1.25%, the 3-year note is 2.23% and the 10-year bond is 4.05% (as of this writing). When you factor in a dollar value that is down about 20% for the past year, you have the steepest X factor yield curve I've seen.

Our economy has another monetary plus. It has been reported that homeowners have captured about $13 trillion dollars in equity from the ever rising value of their homes. Never in the history of the business cycle has a recovery gotten underway with so much money in consumers' pockets.

We read a lot about all the money that's been lost by investors. However, too little is said about the money consumers are making. No one talks about the money that has been made in precious metals, REITs and the bond markets. No one is putting a gun to investors' heads and forcing them to put their money into losing investments.

The Swiss annuity is up, on average, about 10% for the past three years. Yet, no one seems to be interested in this potentially safe and profitable investment. American investors have become too obsessed with the half-empty glass. In about 125 years of market history, we have only seen one time when the market was down four years in a row-1929 to 1933. That was a period when the world was without a worldwide reserve currency guaranteed by gold. As a result, there was very little global trade.

Currently, the world is blessed with two global reserve currencies-the Euro and the dollar. The only major negative is the possibility of war. If the war on terrorism were to turn nasty, it could hinder the current recovery. The stock market is not discounting this possibility.

It's too bad the media doesn't look for more positives. The year ended any my Pro Picks portfolio was up 15.88%. That represents four years running that my Pro Picks portfolio has been up in at least double digits, averaging over 75% a year.

Other market analysts have also had positive investment years. But you wouldn't know it by listening to the major media. Money flow analysts have been making money and I fully intend to have a fifth year of double digit profits for Pro Picks and my 21 Small Caps portfolios. STAY TUNED!