Saturday, July 31, 2010


 
February 19, 2003 Commentary

When I joined the newsletter publishing business seven years ago, it was requested that I replace my position as a market timer-one who divines the big picture-to that of a portfolio designer-one who divines and buys profitable stocks. I quickly realized that I had a talent for portfolio designing when my portfolio achieved yearly gains in double-digit figures, and has yet to suffer a losing year.

Over the past seven years, I have become practically obsessed with maintaining my winning record of accomplishment. As a result, I am reluctant to return to my role as a market timer, first because there is not as much a demand for the big picture as much as there is for making a profit, and second because a significant portion of my earnings comes from my investments. Nevertheless, planning short-term gains without accounting for the long-term consequences can lead to financial disaster.

As we presently face such a financial disaster, I have taken it upon myself to preemptively buy and sell certain investments in order to obtain those that benefit from a weaker dollar. These decisions have come in response to my divine revelation regarding dollar value and the future of the stock market in the decade to come.

To withhold such information from my readers would be as dishonest as those CEOs who encouraged their employees to buy and hold the company's stock while simultaneously selling their holdings of the same stock. I reassure you, that is not what I am about. Another reason why I am placing so much emphasis on dollar value as it pertains to the stock market is because of what I have predicted to become one of the worst economic downfalls since the 1970s, and perhaps even worse.

The economy remains stagnate as our country prepares for the possibility of war with Iraq. The market has plunged 1000 points since the deployment of military forces in the Middle East. However, the war has been discounted by the stock market because it is not a question of who will win, but how long victory will last.

No war has ever been fought for selfless ideological reasons. Financial and political gains have always been the motivating factor behind war. In fact, financial gain and the struggle for power is usually what compels a government to go to war. However, financial and political gain that motivates the government to go to war is not enough to motivate the average American to follow.

Therefore, the government is compelled to tailor reasons sufficient to motivate Americans to go to war. For example, the Civil War was a war to free the slaves through the abolition of slavery. WWI was the war that would end all wars. WWII was fought to protect the world from dictator regimes. Now, we are possibly entering a war with Iraq in order to fight a war on terrorism.

The potential war with Iraq is motivated by both financial and political reasons. There was a time when gold ruled. Great Britain at one time had the gold and, thus, ruled. The standard changed when the world did away with the classic gold standard. Today's standard is those who create the money are the ones who rule.

I have been asked many times why so many people are unfamiliar with the history of the world's monetary system. There have been four monetary systems over the past 100 years. The failure of each of these four monetary systems has caused enormous financial loss to many people worldwide.

The history of these four failed monetary systems began around the turn of the 20th century when an insufficient production of gold led to the collapse of the classic gold system. It was said that the production and supply of gold could not keep up with the ever-increasing growth of the human population.

Another, and perhaps more significant reason for the failure of the gold system was its obstinate position to maintain the status quo-those who were referred to as old money. William Jennings Bryan once ran for the presidency of the United States on the platform that he would not allow the average American to be crucified on a "cross of gold." Instead, he favored silver, which he thought would greatly loosen the supply of money. Bryan failed, and so did the classic gold system a few years after.

The failure of the gold system resulted in a power vacuum. The so-called "have not nations" sought to expand their trade markets. What ensued were trade wars, which finally led to the real thing-WWI. Once the war ended, the world was left without an effective global currency in place. As a result, massive inflation plagued Germany, destroying its middle class and bankrupting the government. Out of this mess rose Adolph Hitler and the Nazi party-national socialists inebriated with contempt.

In an attempt to curb the advancement of the socialist movement, Great Britain made another effort at establishing a global monetary system, the short-lived Gold Exchange System (1925-1930). Britain's new system lasted only four years when it began to collapse in 1928. The Dow discounted its failure, leading to the collapse of Wall Street in 1929 and subsequently the Great Depression of the 1930s.

The absence of a global monetary system during the 1930s led to a massive worldwide socialist expansion. In addition, it led to the resumption of WWI, which became WWII. However, this time there was a switching of sides from the players of WWI. One could say that WWII started in Spain during the 1930s when the Spanish government defeated the socialists' attempt to take control of the Spanish government. WWII ended in 1945 with the surrender of Japan.

In 1919, the U.S. refused to assist the victorious nations of WWI in establishing a global monetary system. At the time, the U.S. government felt that the American people were not ready for a free market economy. Finally, after WWII, massive guilt compelled our nation to take the forefront in launching a global monetary system. The U.S. backed the U.N. and accepted responsibility for the administration of the third global monetary system-the Bretton Woods Gold Exchange System (1944-1971). It was by far the most effective gold exchange system the world had ever known. In a little over a decade, beginning in the late 1950s, this gold exchange system transferred two-thirds of the U.S.'s gold to those abroad.

In 1971, to maintain gold in Fort Knox, President Nixon terminated the gold exchange system, and the Bretton Woods Gold Exchange System came to a halting end. America, because of the failure of the third global monetary system, was forever changed some of it for the good, most of it for the worst.

The failure of the third global monetary system forced U.S. corporations to compete with those abroad. The U.S. was forced into debt in order to survive. In order to prevent the "have nots" from grasping more of the world's trade via a third world war or international terrorism, the leading industrial nations, G7, helped the U.S. form another global monetary system-the first dollar-floating value monetary system (1973-2002).

This fourth global monetary system would come to be the fourth failed system in just a littler over a century. Massive destruction, either financially, physically, or both, followed them all. It appears as though the recent demise of the dollar, as the sole global reserve and trading currency, will stand without exception. You are mistaken if you think the controversy with Iraq is over oil or ties with Israel.

The "have nots," like all the conflicts preceded from the present through power vacuums, want a greater piece of the pie by taking advantage of the weak. I will reveal the identity of the players of the "have not" side and the "have" side, and what each side hopes to accomplish. Perhaps the most crucial information I provide is are the chances that this diplomatic mockery may erupt into a third World War.

Now, you know why politicians who run democratic societies are reluctant to tell it like it is. That is the strategy of our government's biased media. We only begin to learn the truth decades later. Democracy, as we know it, could not function without censored information. When the truth does surface, government-supported historians revise it. But, you don't have to wait 50 years. STAY TUNED!

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