When a newsletter publishing company asked me to join them six years ago, it was recommended that I change my focus as a market timer-one who divines the big picture and utilizes it as a tool in determining how and when to profit from the market-to a portfolio manager-one who divines profitable stocks and investments. In the years that followed, I realized that I had a talent for determining which stocks were profitable and which ones were not. Since 1997, I have finished every year with a double-digit profit, four years of which were verified by an outside source. Thus, I have become obsessed with maintaining my record breaking winning streak. To this day, I hold market timing as being the operative component in building a winning portfolio, and I continue to place considerable emphasis on the importance of timing. I have determined that the precise timing of the market has given me an edge in maintaining a profitable portfolio.
Having a clear view of the big picture can assist you in determining winning stocks while avoiding major financial losses. The stock market has collapsed, consuming a significant portion of investor savings, on an average of once every 25 years. During the last century, there have been four major global monetary systems, all of which have collapsed. Following each collapse were war, major financial disaster, or both. Therefore, it would be unprofessional and irresponsible of me not to warn you when I have reason to believe that another disaster awaits us.
The dollar has fallen 22% vs. the Swiss franc over the past year. The dollar could and most certainly should fall another 30%-40% throughout the end of this decade, according to a number market analysts. A growing consensus among market analysts agree that unless the value of the dollar falls, the U.S. economy will continue to operate without sufficient profits.
The Dow has plunged more than a thousand points since the Bush Administration's announcement that it will deploy troops to the Mid-East. The word on Wall Street is that the market is waiting for the war to begin and, for the exception of food and energy; there is still a lack of inflation. Is the market rally waiting for war? A few years ago when the buy and hold strategy was on every analyst's top 10 hits, it turned out to be bogus. In the near future, it is predicted that prices will rise and an expected Dow rally at the outbreak of war will very likely be short-lived. Could this final thought be bogus as well?
Throughout the history of man and civilization, there has never been a war fought solely for the sake of humanity. Monetary and political gain, guided by self-interest, has always been the compelling factor behind the motivation for war. However, while these motivating factors are perceived as a sufficient reason to go to war by government officials, they are seldom sufficient for the average citizen. Therefore, a government is forced to tailor motivating reasons that will compel citizens to passionately support the government's cause. Neither the Civil War-the war to the free the salves-WWI-the war that would end all wars-or WWII-the war that would protect the world from fascism-were ever initially based on those slogans. The government to gain public support tailored these slogans several years after theses wars began.
Today, the War on Terrorism seems to be the motivating factor behind public support. Motivating factors such as these seem real enough in the beginning, but often enough, the decades that follow unveil the real reasons as to why a country goes to war. There may be many reasons as to why the U.S. is pushing war with Iraq-to unseat a ruthless murderous dictator, to free a nation from cruelty and exploitation, national security, oil, or for the well being of Israel. The objective for the later scenario would provide an environment that will allow Israel and Palestine a chance to create a Palestinian state, thus paving a path for peace in the Middle East.
There exists what analysts consider a long-shot-the continuation of a battle for wealth and power that has been going on for over a century. This conflict centers on the conception of a viable global monetary system. As mentioned before, there have been four failed global monetary systems, and each failure put the world at the mercy of the four horsemen of the apocalypse. The first failed global monetary system, the Classic Gold System, collapsed around the turn of the century. WWI, as well as, massive inflation throughout the world followed. The second failed global monetary system, the Gold Exchange System (1925-1932), was discounted to collapse in 1928, consequently, precipitating the stock market crash of 1929, and subsequently, the Great Depression. The third failed global monetary system, the Bretton Woods Gold Exchange System (1944-1971), precipitated the Great Inflation of the 1970s, and the destruction of a major portion of the U.S.'s industrial might. During the 1980s, the fourth global monetary system, the Floating Dollar Global Monetary System (1973-2002), began to collapse. To this day, the U.S. economy is suffering from some of the residual effects of the fourth failed global monetary system.
As of now, the monetary world is in transition. Globally, the dollar is no longer the only trade and reserve currency. A dual global floating currency system was instituted in 2002. During the years of the Classic Gold System, the axiom was that he who holds the gold rules. With the advent of the fiat dollar monetary system in the late 1970s, the axiom states that he who prints the money rules. Now, we have a two-fiat currency global monetary system. I have found great difficulty buying into the popular opinion that the world has changed for the better. No nation covets the brass ring enough to go to war for it. To state that governments sacrifice their self-interest for the sake of the global community is as phony as a submarine with a screen door. Politicians are a breed of their own. They cut their teeth on gaining wealth and power. As the saying goes, a tiger cannot change its stripes.
There exists a subtle struggle for supremacy and trade markets between certain powers in the Euro lands. France and Germany, the key players, are attempting to wrest control of the dual currency system from the United States in order to weaken the dollar. The U.S. is doing everything within its power to prevent this from occurring. The U.S. is lining up as many allies as possible in order to deal with Saddam Hussein. Simultaneously, the U.S. is attempting to maintain support from its newfound alliance in hopes to preserve the dollar's value at least at a minimum level of value.
It comes as no surprise that France is marching to the beat of its own drummer. Following the days of Charles De Gaulle, Germany has fought two world wars in an endeavor to gain wealth and power. It should come as no shock to see Germany in bed with France to further weaken the chances for the dollar's recovery.
Maintaining allies is a simple task. You offer a military umbrella to those who will opt for dollars rather than euros. This is exactly what is going on with North Korea and the Mid-East.
